Like a saga of Harry Potter, each episode seems to get darker and darker. Yes, there will be a light, there always is, some where down that road, but we have yet to even reach midnight, to yet hope for the light of dawn. In truth, we are still only in the late late evening and midnight, the true gloom is still off, though approaching quickly. Brace yourselves, brothers and sisters, because the roller coaster of 2011 is the biggest one yet but far from the last one.
Russia
This year is not going to be easy for us. In part, we will suffer several plagues: one, the economic collapse of China will severally lower commodity prices. This will of course hit our government budget hard, which draws most of its taxes off of oil and gas. This in turn will have a positive long term effect: the forced streamlining of the government. The defense fund is all but gone, so without major reserves, the government will have to continue with the layoffs of chenovniks, bureaucrats. Already scheduled for the ax, 200k, over the next 1.5 years, or 20% of the federal government work force, will probably grow to 30 or 40%. Many functions done by a warm body can and will be done by a computer. This and an new emphasis on business will remove several more layers of hands who want their share for doing nothing more than putting a stamp on a paper....and good riddance to the vast majority of them.
We will also face more civil unrest due to the central Asians, here illegally and to other groups. Further, the ultra-nationalists, without realizing it, are playing the CIA's hand. There will be more disruptions and riots, however, the situation will settle out. The government will compromise, making expulsion of illegals a much higher priority and while the police will still be corrupt, they will be much more fearful, as no police chief can afford a nationalist riot if he wants his pension.
Terrorism will continue on its present, CIA/MI6/Saudi funded course. That is, four times higher than that of 2009. There will be several very bloody incidents. Reprisals will escalate also, not only from Federal officials but from various other groups, such as monarchists and cossacks. Many Muslims will continue converting to Christ, which will also center more of the attacks into the neighborhoods of these converts. Of course, this will continue to push more to Christ.
Russia will also see new opportunity on the Korean peninsula to woo a unified Korea, and with China in disarray, to push out the US and become Korea's alternative to Japan or China, both traditional enemies as well as partners. Russia will also become the primary arms dealer to Korea, as well as signing deals for gas and oil, to power the rebuilding of Korea and its industrial expansion.
Russia will also be engaged in first a political and then a brief military standoff in the Black Sea with the Turks. Though a NATO ally, NATO will not step in, as two other NATO allies (Greece and Bulgaria) will also be participating. Russian participation will primarily be in the form of Navel and Air assets and some raids by marines, on Turkish coastal regions. The aftermath will be a stronger Russian presence in the Balkans, particularly with Greece and Serbia firmly in the Russian sphere and Bulgaria sliding in the same direction.
I also give us a 1 in 3 chance of having Georgia the Sequel. Maybe this time President Medvedev will not stop until he takes Tbilisi?